A conflict analysis is based on and in turn informs the conflict mental map everyone creates as the situation unfolds. The conflict mental map keeps the action integrated and organized in people’s heads, for making decisions while under the stresses of conflict.
Conflict mental maps help me explain what I am observing, how to interpret it, the meaning to make of it, what process design might be most beneficial, when an intervention might be appropriate, who the parties and allies are, where the power/resources can be found, the boundaries around the conflict landscape, and everything else that impacts the conflict system.
In an intervention, whatever I say/do is going to have the parties’ attention. I want it to count for something, and can choose any one of a number of directions. I see the map of the conflict terrain in my head with multiple paths to walk at possible bifurcation points, depending on where I steer the parties next. Some paths are dead ends, some might rile things up, and one or two are potentially helpful. I get about a nanosecond to decide on a direction and speak, so I make decisions based on continual instantaneous conflict analyses, rapidly generating options mentally, checking them against the conflict mental map, weighing the options against what I know, rejecting some words, assessing how particular personalities might interpret it, and picking words least likely to be misunderstood and most likely to accomplish something positive.
Everyone makes a mental model of how their conflict happened, where the conflict currently stands, and what they wish would occur. People take actions to achieve whatever conflict goals seem possible and optimal, based on that subjective analysis of conflict history, present, and future. Sometimes their analysis is global, altruistic, and/or correct, sometimes it is local, self-centered, and/or irrational, and always it is constrained by imperfect and incomplete data. We do our best within the boundaries of unique personal, factual, and skills limitations. However, conflict analysis is where everyone starts whether intentionally or intuitively, artfully or ineptly. That mental map of the conflict contains a landscape that can be tamed.
